This paper draws on a general equilibrium poisson pseudo maximum likelihood model augmented by a dynamic capital accumulation to estimate the effects of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) on intra-African trade flows. The empirical results show that the AfCFTA could raise...

Madagascar plans to start phasing out its customs tariffs on imports from the Southern African Development Community in 2007. This paper uses a CGE model to evaluate the impact of the SADC FTA on Madagascar economy. The results suggest that the SADC FTA would only have a limited impact on...

The objective of this manuscript is to serve as a practical guide for evaluation of the general equilibrium (GE) effects of trade policy using the structural gravity model. We try to achieve this objective in four steps. First, we focus on the original Armington-CES gravity model, as a...

We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions on Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism. Tariff shocks are more important than trade policy...

The trade relations between India and China have been intensified since 2001. The aim of this paper is to examine the effects of tariff reduction by India and China on bilateral imports in light and heavy manufacturing sectors. The results are evaluated in terms of welfare, output, employment...

The China-US trade relation has been plagued by the threat of MFN revocation in the past 10 years. The recent passage of China WTO bill in US House of Representatives paves the way for eventually granting China the Normal Trade Relations (NTR, formerly MFN) status on a permanent basis. As a...

In this paper, we investigate the mechanisms through which import tariffs impact the macroeconomy in two large scale workhorse models used for quantitative policy analysis: a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model (Purdue University GTAP model) and a multi-country dynamic stochastic...

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is the largest integration effort attempted in the developing world; if realized, it will create a single market with the free movement of goods, services, foreign direct investment and skilled labor, and freer movement of capital encompassing nearly 600 million...

While "mega FTAs" and WTO-driven efforts at multilateral liberalisation dominate the agenda, customs unions (CU) are the silent success story of regional integration. Throughout the world, CUs have been superseding earlier FTAs, as new unions were formed or old ones expanded. Due to problems of...

This paper deals with the trade and welfare effects of a potential bilateral trade agreement between the US and Japan. A possible agreement is currently being discussed between Washington and Tokyo, although, there is also the alternative for the US government joining Trans-Pacific Partnership...