In diesem Beitrag wird ein neuer Ansatz zur Modellierung der Bestimmungsfaktoren der von Zentralbanken am Devisenmarkt durchgeführten Interventionen entwickelt. Dieser neue Ansatz baut auf der empirischen Beobachtung auf, dass Zentralbanken oftmals an mehreren aufeinander folgenden Tagen am...

Fly with the Eagles or Scratch with the Chickens? – Herd Behavior of Exchange Rate Forecasters We analyze whether exchange-rate forecasters herd. To this end, we lay out two widely studied theoretical models of forecaster herding. The models illustrate why forecasters may herd. We then...

Much significant research has been done to shed light on discrimination of females in, for example, labor markets. Less is known, in contrast, about the amount of discrimination in the virtual world of online gaming. In an early study, Castronova (2004) finds that female avatars receive about...

We analyze the law of one price (LoP) based on BigMac and Fortnite prices. We find a positive but less than perfect correlation between the over-/undervaluations of the two indices. While we cannot reject the LoP for the Fortnite data, we find that it does not hold for the BigMac data.

Komplexe Aktien- und Wechselkurstrajektoren werden im Rahmen eines nichtlinearen dynamischen makroökonomischen Modells mit träger Outputanpassung am Gütermarkt und heterogener Erwartungsbildung auf den Assetmärkten abgeleitet. Die Implikationen des Aufeinandertreffens von Chartisten und...

The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has witnessed that house prices may have a profound effect on the economy. A key question for researchers and policymakers is what can be learnt from forecasts of changes in house prices. We use survey data from the WSJ forecast poll to analyze this question....

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125,2005), we analyzed whether the loss function of a sample of exchange rate forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Using forecasts of the euro/dollar exchange rate, we found that the shape of the loss...

Using forecasts of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso, we analyze the shape of the loss function of exchange-rate forecasters and the rationality of their forecasts. We find a substantial degree of cross-sectional heterogeneity with respect to the shape of the loss function. While some...

We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006-2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from)...

Die Trump-Regierung hat Mexiko Importzölle angedroht, auch um den Bau einer Mauer zwischen den Ländern zu finanzieren, sollte Mexiko die Kosten nicht freiwillig übernehmen. Hier wird untersucht, welche Auswirkungen ein solcher Zoll für beide Länder hätte.