This paper proposes a new measure of contagion that is good at anticipating future vulnerabilities. Building on previous work, it uses correlations of equity markets across countries to measure contagion, but in a departure from previous practice it measures contagion using the relationship of...

This paper assesses the implementation of IMF-supported programs using measures of program interruptions, compliance with conditionally, and the share of committed funds disbursed. The econometric model allows an evaluation of the importance for program implementation of political conditions in...

The effects of unanticipated movements in global risk on nine emerging bond markets are investigated. The components of global risk are volatility, credit, and liquidity risks. Country and contagion risks are also studied individually. A historical decomposition of bond spreads is used to...

A widespread view holds that countries that finance themselves through foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio equity, rather than bonds and loans, are less prone to crises. But what determines countries` external capital structures? In a cross section of emerging markets and developing...

This paper explores the relationship between external debt and poverty. A number of observers have argued that high external indebtedness is a major cause of poverty, Using the first-differenced general method of moments (GMM) estimator, the paper models the impact of external debt on poverty,...

We explore a model intended to capture the interaction between exchange rate policy, fiscal policy, and outright default on foreign-currency denominated debt. We examine how the exchange rate affects the supply of short-term debt facing the government. We show that under a credible hard peg...

What determines the ability of governments from developing countries to access international credit markets? We examine this question using detailed data on sovereign bond issuances and public syndicated bank loans since 1982. We find that traditional measures of a country`s links with the rest...

We test the hypothesis of a link between exchange rate policy and sovereign bonds. We analyze the effect of exchange rate policies on supply and credit spreads of sovereign bonds issued by developing countries. An exchange rate policy is captured by the de facto exchange rate regime and the real...

This paper assesses empirically the links among a country`s institutions and political environment, its implementation of IMF-supported programs, and macroeconomic performance in a sample of 197 programs approved between 1992 and 2002. We find that a stronger institutional and political...

The paper provides a systematic analysis of bilateral, source and host factors driving portfolio equity investment across countries, using newly-released data on international equity holdings at the end of 2001. It develops a model that links bilateral equity holdings to bilateral trade in goods...