This paper introduces macroeconomic forecasters as political agents and suggests that they use their forecasts to influence voting outcomes. We develop a probabilistic voting model in which voters do not have complete information about the future states of the economy and have to rely on...

Using estimates of support for Leave across UK local authority areas constructed from a comprehensive 20,000 strong survey, we show that both the level and the geographic variation capturing differential degrees of support for Leave have changed significantly since the 2016 EU referendum. A lot...

Did austerity cause Brexit? This paper shows that the rise of popular support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), as the single most important correlate of the subsequent Leave vote in the 2016 European Union (EU) referendum, along with broader measures of political dissatisfaction, are...

Previous studies used general government data to examine whether national governments' electoral motives and ideology influenced budget composition in OECD countries. General government data includes, however, the state and local level. Using new data for general and central government over the...

We ask whether attitudes toward government play a causal role in the evasion of U.S. personal income taxes. We first use individual-level survey data to demonstrate a link between sharing the party of the president and trust in the administration generally and opinions on taxation and spending...

Los experimentos populistas son recurrentes en América Latina. Uno de los casos más conspicuos es el de Bolivia en el siglo 21 bajo el gobierno de Evo Morales y el Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS). El populismo de este siglo, en común con experiencias previas, prioriza [a redistribución del...

The paper investigates the effects produced by the electoral system on expenditure composition by exploring the case of Italian regions over the period 1986-2009. Empirical analysis shows that the regional current expenditure transfers distributed to families and firms significantly decrease...

This article investigates the Multiple Equilibria Regulation (MER) model, i.e., an agent-based simulation model, to represent opinion dynamics in social networks. It relies on a small set of micro-prerequisites (intra-individual balance and confidence bound), leading to emergence of...

In federal countries, competence for policy matters is often shared between various levels of government. As only overall outcomes are observed, this might blur accountability by decreasing voters' ability to infer information about the performance of their leaders. In this article, we analyse...

This paper explores the relationship between fiscal decentralization, which gave greater rural industrialization and fiscal authority to local governments, and the emergence of rural-rural undocumented inter-provincial labor migration during China's initial reform period. A Heckman model is...