Recent studies document the deteriorating performance of forecasting models during the Great Moderation, which conversely implies that forecastability was higher in the preceding era when the economy was unexpectedly volatile. We explain this phenomenon in the context of equilibrium...

This paper develops a framework to systematically study how changes in market conditions affect the equilibrium inequality between heterogeneous agents. By stating our setting as a "competition for market shares", we can derive inequality predictions for vastly different competition models. This...

This paper develops a framework to systematically study how changes in market conditions affect the equilibrium inequality between heterogeneous agents. By stating our setting as a "competition for market shares", we can derive inequality predictions for vastly different competition models. This...

We study an optimal robust monetary policy for a small open economy. The robust control approach assumes that economic agents cannot assign probabilities to a set of plausible models and rather focuses on the worst possible misspecification from a benchmark model. Our findings suggest that,...

This paper provides the proofs to the analysis of a continuous time matching model with saving in Bayer and Wälde (2010a). The paper proves the results on consumption growth, provides an existence proof for optimal consumption and a detailed derivation of the Fokker-Planck equations.

This paper provides the proofs to the analysis of a continuous time matching model with saving in Bayer and Wälde (2010a). The paper proves the results on consumption growth, provides an existence proof for optimal consumption and a detailed derivation of the Fokker-Planck equations. --...

We propose a formal way to systematically study the differential effects of exogenous shocks in economic models with heterogeneous agents. Our setting applies to models that can be rephrased as "competition for market shares" in a broad sense. We show that even in presence of any number of...

This paper extends the solution space for decision theory by introducing a behavioural operator that (1) transforms probability domains, and (2) generates sample paths for confidence from catalytic fuzzy or ambiguous sources. First, we prove that average sample paths for confidence/sentiment,...

We propose a simple non-equilibrium model of a financial market as an open system with a possible exchange of money with an outside world and market frictions (trade impacts) incorporated into asset price dynamics via a feedback mechanism. Using a linear market impact model, this produces a...