Analysts associated with the Cowles Commission attached great importance to the distinction between structural and reduced-form models: in their view structural models, but not reduced-form models, allow the analysis of causal relations. They did not present clear justification for this view....

The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the...

This paper provides a brief survey of the bootstrap and its use in econometrics. As an introduction, the paper gives a description of the basics of the method, with a special emphasis on boostrap testing. A fairly large amount of space is devoted to discuss why bootstrap tests provide...

A common finding in empirical studies using micro data on consumer and producer prices is that hazard functions for price changes are decreasing. This means that a firm will have a lower probability of changing its price the longer it has kept it unchanged. This result is at odds with standard...

In non-experimental sciences the errors associated with model misspecifications in primarystudies carry over to meta-analysis. We use Monte Carlo simulations to analyse the effects ofthese misspecifications on results of a meta-analysis using a meta-estimator that calculates asimple average...

Since PV grid paraity has already been achieved in Germany, households are given an indirect financial incentive to invest in PV and battery storage capacities. This paper analyzes the economic consequences of the household's optimization behavior induced by the indirect financial incentive for...

Motivated by Manski and Tamer (2002) and especially their partial identification analysis of the regression model where one covariate is only interval-measured, we present two extensions. Manski and Tamer (2002) propose two estimation approaches in this context, focussing on general results. The...

As a basis for information recovery in open dynamic microeconomic systems, we emphasize the connection between adaptive intelligent behavior, causal entropy maximization and self-organized equilibrium seeking behavior. This entropy-based causal adaptive behavior framework permits the use of...

Motivated by Manski and Tamer (2002) and especially their partial identification analysis of the regression model where one covariate is only interval-measured, we offer several contributions. Manski and Tamer (2002) propose two estimation approaches in this context, focussing on general...

Although economic processes and systems are in general simple in nature, the underlying dynamics are complicated and seldom understood. Recognizing this, in this paper we use a nonstationary-conditional Markov process model of observed aggregate data to learn about and recover causal influence...