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A Monetary Explanation for the Recession of 1797

Curott, Nicholas Adam - 2011

This paper presents a monetary explanation the US recession of 1797. Credit expansion initiated by Bank of the United States in the early 1790s unleashed a bout of inflation and low real interest rates which spurred a speculative investment bubble in real estate and capital intensive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125857

American Business Cycles 1889-1913 : An Accounting Approach

Jiang, Dou; Weder, Mark - 2021

This paper quantitatively investigates the Depression of the 1890s and the 1907 recession in the United States. Business Cycle Accounting decomposes economic fluctuations into their contributing factors. The results suggest that both the 1890s and the 1907 recessions were primarily caused by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013237709

The US business cycle, 1867 - 1995 : a dynamic factor approach

Ritschl, Albrecht; Sarferaz, Samad; Uebele, Martin - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003793651

The US Bond Market Before 1926 : Investor Total Return from 1793, Comparing Federal, Municipal, and Corporate Bonds Part I: 1793 to 1857

McQuarrie, Edward F. - 2019

US securities markets took root after Alexander Hamilton's refunding of the Federal debt in the early 1790s. Accordingly, a market in bonds has been in operation in the US for over two centuries. Until recently, however, little was known about bond market returns prior to 1857. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897910

A dynamic factor analysis of business cycle on firm-level data

Alessi, Lucia; Barigozzi, Matteo; Capasso, Marco - 2006

We use the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model proposed by Forni et al. [2000] in order to study the dynamics of the rate of growth of output and investment and establish stylized facts of business cycles. By using quarterly firm level data relative to 660 US firms for 20 years, we investigate the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328598

The Great Moderation in Historical Perspective. Is it that Great?

Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores - 2015

structure and a substantial reduction of output volatility. We find two robust structural breaks in volatility at the end of … volatility reduction is only linked to expansion features. We also date the US business cycle in the long run, finding that … volatility plays a primary role in the definition of the business cycle, which has important consequences for econometricians and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014407

The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices : A Reappraisal

Arezki, Rabah - 2013

This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in … evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. The literature tends … to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091831

Did sunspot cause the Great Depression?

Harrison, Sharon G.; Weder, Mark - 2002

We apply a dynamic general equilibrium model to the period of the Great Depression. In particular, we examine a modification of the real business cycle model in which the possibility of indeterminacy of equilibria arises. In other words, agents' self-fulfilling expectations can serve as a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621410

Accelerating into the Abyss : Financial Dependence and the Great Depression

Mladjan, Mrdjan - 2019

This paper gives new evidence for the importance of bank suspensions during the Great Depression. I establish that more financially dependent manufacturing industries exhibited steeper declines in output relative to peers. This differential is largest in states that were most affected by banking...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905100

Treatment of the Banking Holiday of March 1933 in Growth Regressions

Mladjan, Mrdjan - 2019

Government intervention during the banking holiday of March 1933 resolved the uncertainty usually created by bank suspensions. Including banking holiday suspensions in growth regressions therefore biases downwards the estimates of the real effects of bank suspensions. In this paper, I propose a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865724