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Private Debt Overhang and the Government Spending Multiplier : Evidence for the United States

Bernardini, Marco - 2015

Using state-dependent local projection methods and historical U.S. data, we find that government spending multipliers are considerably larger in periods of private debt overhang. In particular, we find significant crowding-out of personal consumption and investment in low-debt states, resulting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024365

Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession : an extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model

Doz, Catherine; Ferrara, Laurent; Pionnier, Pierre-Alain - 2020

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012244551

Modelling the Australasian financial cycle : a Markov-Regime Switching Approach

Wet, Milan C. de - In: International journal of business and economic sciences … 14 (2021) 1, pp. 69-79

Purpose: The importance of the financial cycle has become a central point of consideration for policymakers since the 2007-08 financial crisis. This study aimed to construct and characterize the aggregate Australasian financial cycle. Design/methodology/approach: To construct the aggregate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012604064

Global financial cycles since 1880

Potjagailo, Galina; Wolters, Maik H. - In: Journal of international money and finance 131 (2023), pp. 1-13

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014248868

A banking explanation of the US velocity of money: 1919 - 2004

Benk, Szilárd; Gillman, Max; Kejak, Michal - 2009

velocity volatility at both business cycle and long run frequencies. With filtered velocity turning negative, starting during …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288749

The Great Moderation Under the Microscope : Decomposition of Macroeconomic Cycles in US and UK Aggregate Demand

Crowley, Patrick M.; Hughes Hallett, Andrew - 2011

In this paper the relationship between the growth of real GDP components is explored in the requency domain using both static and dynamic wavelet analysis. This analysis is carried out separately for the US and UK using quarterly data, and the results are found to be substantially different for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014181451

Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence

Canarella, Giorgio; Fang, Wen-shwo; Miller, Stephen M.; … - 2010

The Great Moderation, the significant decline in the variability of economic activity, provides a most remarkable feature of the macroeconomic landscape in the last twenty years. A number of papers document the beginning of the Great Moderation in the US and the UK. In this paper, we use the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014215633

Recent U.S. Macroeconomic Stability : Good Policies, Good Practices, or Good Luck?

Ahmed, Shaghil; Levin, Andrew T.; Wilson, Beth Anne - 2003

The volatility of U.S. real GDP growth since 1984 has been markedly lower than that over the previous quarter … find that reduced innovation variances account for much of the decline in aggregate output volatility. Our results support … the "good-luck" hypothesis as the leading explanation for the decline in aggregate output volatility, although "good …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014112860

Public Wages, Public Employment, and Business Cycle Volatility : Evidence from U.S. Metro Areas

A. Reicher, Claire - 2016

business cycle volatility, hinting at a stabilizing effect of public employment, while public wages correlate weakly and … positively with business cycle volatility, hinting at a destabilizing effect of public wages. To explain these relationships, we …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989839

Estimating the Effect of the Age Distribution on Cyclical Output Volatility Across the United States

Lugauer, Steven - 2013

distribution in the population and the magnitude of cyclical output volatility. According to panel regression estimates the … relative supply of young workers, or youth share, has a statistically significant effect on the volatility of state … business cycle fluctuations, indicating a critical link between the youth share and output volatility …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075176