In this paper, we calculated the average daily return and the Betas of Israeli stocks for the period April 1st 2009 – April 1st 2010. The correlation coefficient between return and Beta is 0.47. Although we find that the econometric relation between return and Beta is statistically...

Most prediction markets focus on events with a short time horizon such as forthcoming elections. Contracts are typically traded for periods measured in weeks, but rarely exceeding a year. There is great interest in using prediction markets for events with a long time horizon such as climate...

Cointegrated time processes are viewed graphically in terms of candlestick charts in finance and sports and modeled dynamically in terms of adaptive drift procedures. Forecasts focus on active equity trading, betting against the bookmakers’ lines in sports and assessing trading/betting risks....

This paper tests the explanatory power of an online Prediction market on the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi as Libya’s leader during the uprising in 2011. Based on the theory of efficient markets and collective intelligence, it employs a GARCH time-series analysis and an event study of Intrade...

We examine 330,857 trades of prediction market contracts, the values of which are based on against-the-spread outcomes of NFL games, and find the presence of a significant reverse favourite-longshot bias. Surprisingly, the timing of this bias is identical to that observed in traditional...

Prediction markets are viewed as the most accurate instrument for collective forecasts. However, empirical studies, mostly based on political elections, deliver mixed results. An experimental study was conducted to avoid certain biases and problems and to better control conditions of eliciting...

n this paper we argue that pre-election polls and prediction markets reflect two different processes which, by analyzing them together, can help us understand if and how key events which occur during an election campaign influence the final outcome. While polls can be seen as reflecting the...

Prediction (or information) markets are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoff depends on unknown future events. Studying prediction markets allows to avoid many problems, which arise in some artificially designed behavioral experiments investigating collective decision making...

We apply several well-known and popular technical indicators to the daily data for the Vietnam Ho Chi Minh stock index (VSI) from 5/15/2002 to October 31 of 2012. The empirical results strongly support the predictive power of technical trading rules; these strong results also hold for each...

This paper finds that claim prices in prediction markets, a new genre of financial markets, follow a Poisson distribution. The significance of this finding is that as soon as a claim in a prediction market is created and thereafter flushes out expert and inside information from around the world...