The poor performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models in and out-of-sample is well documented in literature. One reason for this result is the impact of ‘scapegoat' effects: that is, participants attach different weights to different macro fundamentals in different periods. On the other...

The removal of the lower bound on the EUR/CHF exchange rate in January 2015 provides a unique setting to study the implications of a large and sudden appreciation in an otherwise stable macroeconomic environment. Using transaction-level data on non-durable goods purchases by Swiss consumers, we...

We use cointegration analysis to show that the long-run behaviour of the Brazilian real effective exchange rate betweeen January 1999 and September 2012 can largely be explained by the price variation of a basket of five commodities – that accounted for 51% of Brazilian export revenues in...

Exchange rate fluctuations influence economic activity not only via the standard trade channel, but also through a financial channel, which operates through the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on borrowers' balance sheets and lenders' risk-taking capacity. This paper explores the...

In the aftermath of the Covid pandemic rising commodity prices went hand-in-hand with a strengthening US dollar. This was a sharp contrast to the usual relationship between commodity prices and the dollar. This paper presents evidence that post-Covid correlation patterns could become more common...

This paper explores the relationship between devaluing the dollar and inflation, examining both the theoretical frameworks and historical examples that shed light on this complex issue. While some argue that devaluation can decrease inflation by reducing demand or increasing the supply of goods...

When available financial securities allow investors to optimally diversify risk across countries, standard theory implies that exchange rates should reflect this behavior. However, exchange rates observed in the data deviate from these predictions. In this paper, we develop a framework to value...

When available financial securities allow investors to optimally diversify risk across countries, standard theory implies that exchange rates should reflect this behavior. However, exchange rates observed in the data deviate from these predictions. In this paper, we develop a framework to value...

From August to October 2020, the Haitian authorities were successful at bringing about a sharp appreciation in the gourde/U.S. dollar exchange rate. This paper analyzes the factors behind this appreciation and its spillovers on the economy. It finds that foreign exchange surrender requirements...