In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Specifically,we...

Monthly economic indicators support policy analysis of current economic developments and forecasting. This paper presents an overview of the data and statistical requirements to develop those indicators taking into account resource constraints that LIC typically face. We review statistical...

Studies on Indian manufacturing have been unable to provide consistent estimates of productivity and its growth rates. This paper performs detailed and exhaustive set of accounting exercises for the period 1970-2003 using production function, index number and envelopment analysis methods. TFP...

This paper answers the puzzling questions that why under the similar set of economic conditions service sector in India grew while manufacturing could not and how economic reforms in 1990s accelerated the productivity growth. The paper provides a very innovative and convincing explanation. Two...

We compile data for 186 countries (1919 - 2016) and apply different aggregation methods to create new democracy indices. We observe that most of the available aggregation techniques produce indices that are often too favorable for autocratic regimes and too unfavorable for democratic regimes....

Gross domestic product (GDP) is shown to possess three new desiderata. First, GDP is almost perfectly correlated over time with the first principal component of its three classical indicators. Second, this principal component is in a class of weighted indexes ancillary to GDP. Each ancillary...

We present a new aggregation method - called SVM algorithm - and use this technique to produce novel measures of democracy (186 countries, 1960-2014). The method takes its name from a machine learning technique for pattern recognition and has three notable features: it makes functional...

Das Statistische Bundesamt hat 2005 die Berechnung des realen BIP für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland von der Festpreisbasis auf die Vorjahrespreisbasis umgestellt. Seit Februar 2006 wird auf regionaler Ebene dieses Konzept ebenfalls angewendet. Der vorliegende Beitrag diskutiert die...

We propose a new decomposition method for analysing aggregate productivity changes. The main improvement in our proposed method is that we are clearly able to separate out pure productivity changes of a hypothetical average firm from changes in the share of output or value added between firms....

This paper identifies the major factors explaining GDP growth in a number of South-East Asian countries during the eighties and early nineties. Estimates of the contribution of technological change, increases in the endowments of labor and capital, movements in the terms of trade, and changes in...