Why does the short-term slope of the yield curve predict recessions? We explore the economic forces underlying Treasury yields’ fluctuations and highlight the roles of a tight monetary policy stance and expectations of lower inflation in predicting downturns. While the monetary policy stance...

Why does the short-term slope of the yield curve predict recessions? In this article, we explore the economic forces underlying Treasury yields’ fluctuations and highlight the roles of a tight monetary policy stance and expectations of lower inflation in predicting downturns. While the...

Why does the short-term slope of the yield curve predict recessions? We explore the economic forces underlying Treasury yields’ fluctuations and highlight the roles of a tight monetary policy stance and expectations of lower inflation in predicting downturns. While the monetary policy stance...

While the literature has already widely documented the effects of macroeconomic news announcements on asset prices, as well as their asymmetric impact during good and bad times, we focus on the reaction to news based on the description of the state of the economy as painted by the Federal Open...

We estimate monetary policy surprises (sentiment) from the perspective of three different textual sources: direct central bank communication (FOMC statements and press conferences), news articles, and Twitter posts during FOMC announcement days. Textual sentiment across sources is highly...

A striking feature of the United States stock market is the tendency of days with very large movements of stock prices to be clustered together. We define an extreme movement in stock prices as one that can be characterized as a three sigma event; that is, a daily movement in the broad...

Following the recent financial crisis of August 2007 in US, economists and policy makers hold the view that monetary policy may have an effect on real economic activity through ‘risk taking channel’ which indicates the risk behavior of economic agents and the linkages between monetary policy...

A striking feature of the United States stock market is the tendency of days with very large movements of stock prices to be clustered together. We define an extreme movement in stock prices as one that can be characterized as a three sigma event; that is, a daily movement in the broad...

This paper contributes to the literature on the properties of money and credit indicators for detecting asset price misalignments. After a review of the evidence in the literature on this issue, the paper discusses the approaches that can be considered to detect asset price busts. Considering a...

Crises are triggered by the inherent uncertainty of the capitalist system. We represent this uncertainty in an open economy real business cycle model of the UK by including non-stationary productivity shocks. A random sequence of good or bad shocks will accumulate, producing euphorias and...