This paper employs a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model to study the evolution of the response of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to foreign output and oil price shocks. During a two-decade observation period, cross-country trade and financial linkages experience no-table...

Macroeconomists have been concerned with the structure of business cycle fluctuations and their sources for a long time. In a highly integrated and globalized world, the study of co-movement, or integration, is important because the results of the study on emerging countries could help...

The seven largest emerging market economies -China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey- constituted more than one-quarter of global output and more than half of global output growth during 2010-15.These emerging markets, which we call EM7,are also closely integrated with other...

This article presents a new type of business-cycle index that allows for cycle-to-cycle comparisons of the depth of recessions within a country, cross-country comparisons of business-cycle correlation and simple aggregation to arrive at a measure of a European business cycle. The paper examines...

This paper estimates forward-looking Taylor rules for the euro area. Using the asymmetries in inflation and cyclical output developments across countries, we investigate the adequacy of the single monetary policy for each of the EuropeanMonetary Union (EMU) member countries. Notable differences...

This paper estimates forward-looking Taylor rules for the euro area. Using the asymmetries in inflation and cyclical output developments across countries, we investigate the adequacy of the single monetary policy for each of the EuropeanMonetary Union (EMU) member countries. Notable differences...

Despite notable improvements in the labour market since 2013, wage growth in the euro area was subdued and substantially overpredicted in 2013-17. This paper summarises the findings of an ESCB expert group on the reasons for low wage growth and provides comparable analyses on wage developments...

The goal of the paper consists in investigating if comovements in some selected time series are common to various countries and periods of time. To do so, we use 18 economic time series (GDP and demand components, employment and wages, money and prices, interest rates and stock prices) between...

This study examines the dynamic effects of the oil price (OP) shocks on the key macroeconomic variables of Pakistan. A structural vector autoregressive model is used on yearly data from 1960 to 2014. The impulse response functions indicate that the OP shocks depress the real gross domestic...

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups: industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...