Compared to the predictions of complete market models, actual exchange rates are puzzlingly smooth and only weakly correlated with macro-economic fundamentals, suggesting that market incompleteness plays a key role in exchange rate dynamics. Incompleteness in international financial markets...

In this paper we show that inflation differentials among the countries in the European Monetary Union (EMU) are an economically significant risk to German firms, which make up the largest economy in the EMU. This risk can be interpreted as real "exchange rate exposure" resulting from trade...

In this paper we show that inflation differentials among the countries in the European Monetary Union (EMU) are an economically significant risk to German firms, which make up the largest economy in the EMU. This risk can be interpreted as real “exchange rate exposure” resulting from trade...

Since the Fall of 2008, out-of-the money puts on high interest rate currencies have become significantly more expensive than out-of-the-money calls, suggesting a large crash risk of those currencies. To evaluate crash risk precisely, we propose a parsimonious structural model that includes both...

Based on the theory of static replication of variance swaps we assess the sign and magnitude of variance risk premiums in foreign exchange markets. We find significantly negative risk premiums when realized variance is computed from intraday data with low frequency. As a likely consequence of...

We investigate the pricing of volatility risks in currency markets. First, we show that pricing ability of volatility risk is concentrated in some of its components. Diffusive volatility dominates jump volatility in pricing carry trade returns, while jump volatility is important in jointly...

We find a robust negative effect of exchange rate volatility on S&P500 company returns. The Consumer Discretionary and the Consumer Staple sectors have more significant negative exposure to exchange rate volatility than the other sectors thus supporting the hypothesis that exchange rate...

Policymakers fear the potentially destabilizing impact of fickle global investors on emerging markets. Euro area investors are significant participants in emerging bond markets and exhibit volatile flows, but their fickleness does not result in indiscriminate periods of surge and flight....

Exchange rate exposure of firms diminishes when imported intermediates and exports are denominated in currencies that move together. Appreciations of the domestic currency, raising foreign currency export prices, then also reduce marginal costs, allowing firms to counter the increase in foreign...

Interest rate differentials have been a driving force behind exchange rate movements in recent years. This has focused market attention on the role of currency carry trade positions, and on the possibility that a sudden unwinding might adversely affect financial stability. However, carry trades...