This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a...

In the past decades, risk management in the financial community has been dominated by data-intensive statistical methods which rely on short historical time series to estimate future risk. Many observers consider this approach as a contributor to the current financial crisis, as a long period of...

Häufig unterlaufen Kartelle wettbewerbsrechtliche Beschränkungen und werden illegal tätig. Der Autor beleuchtet die empirischen Schwierigkeiten, die sich daraus für die Kartellforschung ergeben. Auf der Ebene der Kartelltheorie stellt sich das Problem, daß die verwendeten spieltheoretischen...

In order to sketch the possibility space for the future setup of the International Monetary System (IMS), this paper develops four different scenarios that outline potential outcomes of the IMS's evolution by 2040. These scenarios derive from the analytical exercise of adopting a Money View...

This paper discusses the proposals for a tabular standard in the late 19th and early 20th century, as the gold standard unraveled. In particular, we focus on Keynes' use of the tabular standard in his own international monetary proposals and consider how sympathetic he was to this idea of...

This paper argues that in order to be better prepared for future emergent crises, we need to move beyond the current scenarios based on frequentist statistical evidence, and adopt an approach that:1. assumes a complex systems perspective to fully understand socio-environmental dynamics; 2....