The secular shift in labor demand from unskilled to skilled labor is explained within a model that is solved numerically. There are three branches producing a basic good, a differentiated luxury good, and an intermediate service. Production is more skill-intensive in the luxury good and the...

Based on a Cox Proportional Hazard analysis of German unemployment spells, structural change of the production process is identified as a major explanation for long-term unemployment. Other important covariates capture labor market institutions, macroeconomic stress factors, and individual...

This paper reviews Lebanon's ability to manage financial pressures following severe shocks despite its large public debt overhang and significant external vulnerabilities. Based on interviews with market participants in Beirut and London, the paper concludes that Lebanon's ability to weather...

This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less...