Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper''s aim is to...

This paper explores how prudential regulations can support monetary policy in reducing output fluctuations while maintaining financial stability. It uses a new framework that blends a standard model for monetary policy analysis with a contingent claims model of financial sector vulnerabilities....

This paper discusses the potential macroeconomic implications for Hong Kong SAR of accommodative monetary policy in the United States. It shows, through model simulations, that a resumption of the credit channel in Hong Kong SAR has the potential to create inflation in both goods and asset...

The Korean authorities having taken decisive and proactive fiscal measures to help stem the fallout from the current global economic and financial crisis, with the size of the fiscal stimulus well-above the average response of other G20 economies. In this context, a key question is how effective...

The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts...

We study interactions between monetary and macroprudential policies in a model with nominal and financial frictions. The latter derive from a financial sector that provides credit and liquidity services that lead to a financial accelerator-cum-fire-sales amplification mechanism. In response to...

This paper looks at the empirical record whether big infrastructure and public capital drives have succeeded in accelerating economic growth in low-income countries. It looks at big long-lasting drives in public capital spending, as these were arguably clear and exogenous policy decisions. On...

This paper looks at the vulnerabilities stemming from banking sector linkages between countries and their macroeconomic effects. It finds that credit risks (from a banking system’s claims on other countries) and funding risks (from a banking system’s liabilities to another) have declined...

This paper seeks to determine the effects that natural disasters have on per capita GDP and on the debt to GDP ratio in the Caribbean. Two types of natural disasters are studied –storms and floods– given their prevalence in the region, while considering the effects of both moderate and...

Macro-prudential policies aimed at mitigating systemic financial risks have become part of the policy toolkit in many emerging markets and some advanced countries. Their effectiveness and efficacy are not well-known, however. Using panel data regressions, we analyze how changes in balance sheets...