This paper develops optimal tests based on sequential predictive moment conditions. We show that an appropriate weighting version of the predictive test achieves the same power as optimal structural change tests proposed by Sowell (1996a) Optimal tests for parameter instability in the...

The usefulness of SVARs for developing empirically plausible models is actually subject to controversies in macroeconomics. We propose a two-step SVARs-based procedure which consistently estimates the effect of permanent technology shocks on aggregate variables. Simulation experiments from a...

This paper examines structural change tests based on generalized empirical likelihood methods in the time series context. Standard structural change tests for GMM with strongly identified parameters are adapted to the GEL context. We show that when moment conditions are properly smoothed, these...