Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams' excellent conference paper, "Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy," contributes importantly to the new and rapidly growing branch of the literature on bounded rationality and learning in macroeconomics. Their paper, like many others,...

A two-sector real business cycle model, estimated with postwar U.S. data, identifies shocks to the levels and growth rates of total factor productivity in distinct consumption- and investmentgoods- producing technologies. This model attributes most of the productivity slowdown of the 1970s to...

This paper estimates a New Keynesian model to draw inferences about the behavior of the Federal Reserve's unobserved inflation target. The results indicate that the target rose from 1-1/4 percent in 1959 to over 8 percent in the mid-to-late 1970s before falling back below 2-1/2 percent in 2004....

The monetary transmission mechanism describes how policy-induced changes in the nominal money stock or the short-term nominal interest rate impact real variables such as aggregate output and employment. Specific channels of monetary transmission operate through the effects that monetary policy...

This paper extends a New Keynesian model to include roles for currency and depositsas competing sources of liquidity services demanded by households. It showsthat, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the Barnett critique applies: While a Divisiaaggregate of monetary services tracks the true...

This paper constructs a two-country stochastic growth model in which neutraland investment-specic technology shocks are nonstationary but cointegrated acrosseconomies. It uses this model to interpret data showing that while real investmenthas grown faster than real consumption in the United...

The monetary transmission mechanism describes how policy-induced changes in the nominal money stock or the short-term nominal interest rate impact real variables such as aggregate output and employment. Specific channels of monetary transmission operate through the effects that monetary policy...