We study prediction problems for models where the underlying probability measure is not known. These problems are intimately connected with time reversal of Markov processes, and optimal predictors are shown to be characterized by being reverse martingales. For a class of diffusions we give a...

Within the framework of transitive sufficient processes we investigate identifiability properties of unknown parameters. In particular we consider unbiased parameter estimators, which are shown to be closely connected to time reversal and to reverse martingales. One of the main results is that,...

We consider as given an arbitrage‐free interest rate model M, and a parametrized family of forward rate curves G. We study the question as to when the given family G is consistent with the dynamics of the interest rate model M, in the sense that M actually will produce forward rate curves...

We investigate the term structure of zero coupon bonds when interest rates are driven by a general marked point process as well as by a Wiener process. Developing a theory that allows for measure-valued trading portfolios, we study existence and uniqueness of a martingale measure. We also study...