Prepared for the Handbook of Economic Forecasting, vol 2 <p> This chapter reviews Bayesian methods for inference and forecasting with VAR models. Bayesian inference and, by extension, forecasting depends on numerical methods for simulating from the posterior distribution of the parameters and spe-...</p>

The detection of structural change and determination of lag lengths are long-standing issues in time series analysis. This paper demonstrates how these can be successfully married in a Bayesian analysis. By taking account of the inherent uncertainty about the lag length when deciding on the...

The general case where the time specific effect in a two way model follows an arbitrary ARMA process has not been considered previously. We offer a straightforward maximum likelihood estimator for this case. Allowing for general ARMA processes raises the issue of model specification and we...

This paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on employment in the Chinese manufacturing sector. As one of the world's largest recipients of FDI, China has arguably benefited from foreign multinational enterprises in various respects. However, one of the main challenges for...

This paper considers maximum likelihood estimation and inference in the two-way random effects model with serial correlation. We derive a straightforward maximum likelihood estimator when the time-specific component follow an AR(1) or MA(1) process. The estimator is easily generalized to...

This paper considers the large sample behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator of random effects models. Consistent estimation and asymptotic normality as N and/or T grows large is established for a comprehensive specification which allows for serial correlation in the form of AR(1) for the...

The multivariate reduced rank regression model plays an important role in econo- metrics. Examples include co-integration analysis and models with a factor struc- ture. Geweke (1996) provided the foundations for a Bayesian analysis of this model. Unfortunately several of the full conditional...