In this paper the authors introduce a new hybrid approach based on the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. The approach is suitable for measuring market risk in the emerging markets. It is...

The experience of past financial market turmoil suggests that in addition to eroding investor wealth, the severe consequences of rare extreme market events can spillover and impair the broader real economies. In this context, this paper is an evaluation of the methodological and empirical...

The aim of the presented study was to assess the quality of VaR forecasts in various states of the economic situation. Two approaches based on the extreme value theory were compared: Block Maxima and the Peaks Over Threshold. Forecasts were made on the daily closing prices of 10 major indices in...

A dynamic semi-parametric framework is proposed to study time variation in tail fatness of sovereign bond yield changes during the 2010-2012 euro area sovereign debt crisis measured at a high (15-minute) frequency. The framework builds on the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for modeling...

We study the performance of two analytical methods and one simulation method for computing in-sample confidence bounds for time-varying parameters. These in-sample bounds are designed to reflect parameter uncertainty in the associated filter. They are applicable to the complete class of...

We perform a large simulation study to examine the extent to which various generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models capture extreme events in stock market returns. We estimate Hill's tail indexes for individual S&P 500 stock market returns ranging from 1995-2014...

We propose new systematic tail risk measures constructed using two different approaches. The first extends the canonical downside beta and co-moment measures, while the second is based on the sensitivity of stock returns to innovations in market crash risk. Both tail risk measures are associated...

This paper extends the extreme downside correlation (EDC) and extreme downside hedge (EDH) methodology to model the interdependence in the sensitivity of assets to the downside risk of other financial assets under severe firm-level and market conditions. The model is applied to analyze both...