Showing 11 - 20 of 722,208
The evolution of the yields of different maturities is related and can be described by a reduced number of commom latent factors. Multifactor interest rate models of the finance literature, common factor models of the time series literature and others use this property. Each model has advantages...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012053243
This paper uses an estimated open economy DSGE model to examine if constant interest forecasts one and two years ahead can be regarded as modest policy interventions during the period 1993Q4-2002Q4. An intervention is here defined to be modest if it does not trigger the agents to revise their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011583556
shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically linked to the recessions in the post-WWII data. In forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012886359
Asset prices are a valuable source of information about financial market participants.expectations about key macroeconomic variables. However, the presence of time-varying risk premia requires an adjustment of market prices to obtain the market’s rational assessment of future price and policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622575
forecasting ability of the spread. Klassifikation: …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009768273
quite successful in forecasting monthly changes in commodity prices, but that success diminished in the period following …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012798924
multi-step out-of-sample forecasting competition. It turns out that forecasts are improved substantially when allowing for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009768272
. Our results show that adding macroeconomic factors is very beneficial for improving the out-of-sample forecasting … substantial gains in forecasting performance, especially when applying Bayesian model averaging. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372519
forecasting performance has been studied for many countries, but a little can be said about their accuracy for emerging market … the Bayesian approach improve the forecasting performance relative to the traditional models. We also conclude that the … forecasting at a long horizon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836231
The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) was set up in June 2010 as a temporary crisis resolution mechanism. In October 2012, its tasks were taken over by European Stability Mechanism (ESM), a permanent institution with a capital-based structure. Liquidity conditions for EFSF bonds in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403171