considerably from their counterparts based on the most recent data. Moreover, they are not rational forecasts of the final series …. The consequences of using real-time data for inflation forecasts, the dynamic interaction of output gaps and inflation …, and stylised facts of the business cycle are also addressed. The results suggest that revisions of data and estimates can …

The paper analyses reasons for departures from strong rationality of growth and inflation forecasts based on annual … observations from 1963 to 2004. We rely on forecasts from the joint forecast of the so-called "six leading" forecasting … evidence for such a non-linearity for inflation forecasts. …

Multi-step-ahead forecasts of forecast uncertainty in practice are often based on the horizon-specific sample means of … samples are investigated. Considering optimal forecasts, the efficiency gains can be substantial if the sample is not too … forecasts are not optimal. Seemingly unrelated regressions are used to address questions concerning the inflation forecast …

behavior of the states in conducting the budgetary forecasts. Against this backdrop, applying Theil's technique, we analyze the …

rational. A main finding is that GDP forecasts can be substantially improved, especially at long horizons. …

the Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts. Even when a financial variable appears to be fairly robust across sample periods in …

This chapter summarizes recent literature on asymptotic inference about forecasts. Both analytical and simulation based …

Data revisions to national accounts pose a serious challenge to policy decision making. Well-behaved revisions should … be unbiased, small and unpredictable. This paper shows that revisions to German national accounts are biased, large and … predictable. Moreover, using filtering techniques designed to process data subject to revisions, the real-time forecasting …