Potential growth estimates and forecasts generally rely on a decomposition of GDP growth into three production factors: the volume of labour, the volume of capital and a residual term called multifactor productivity (MFP). This residual term is often considered as the contribution to growth of...

The widespread expectation, forcefully posed by Reinhart and Rogoff (2009), that growth in the U.S. and the rest of the industrialized world will be subpar for a prolonged period following the financial crisis, raises issues for the measurement of the financial sector’s activity. According to...

The scale of the recent collapse in asset values and the magnitude of the recession suggest that activities connected to the increase in values over the 2002-07 period — notably, expansion of the financial markets, homebuilding, and real estate — were overstated. If this is true, aggregate...

The scale of the recent collapse in asset values and the magnitude of the recession suggest that activities connected to the increase in values over the 2002-07 period - notably, expansion of the financial markets, homebuilding, and real estate - were overstated. If this is true, aggregate U.S....

This study examines the relationship between Financial Sector Development and Economic Growth in Ghana using time series data from 1980-2009. The study investigates empirically the impact of financial sector development on economic growth in Ghana using the Granger Causality Test, the Johansen...

In this paper, we present international comparisons of potential output growth among several economies —Canada, the euro area, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States— for the period 1991-2004. The main estimates rely on a structural approach...

This paper analyzes why the Philippines' growth performance has improved significantly in recent years. As in the medium to long term actual growth adjusts to potential, we posit that the reason behind this improvement is that the country's potential growth is increasing. We derive an estimate...

We use a dynamic forecasting model to evaluate a wide array of opportunities for sustained economic growth in Myanmar. Our simulation results suggest that the government of Myanmar can advance potential growth drivers, by maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment that is conducive to...

Global potential output growth has been flagging. At 2.5 percent in 2013-17, post-crisis potential growth is 0.5 percentage point below its longer-term average and 0.9 percentage point below its average a decade ago. Compared with a decade ago, potential growth has declined 0.8 percentage point...

Während manche Länder in der Europäischen Währungsunion aufgrund von Schulden- und Strukturkrisen tief in der Rezession stecken, steht die deutsche Wirtschaft derzeit glänzend da. Die Arbeitslosigkeit ist auf den niedrigsten Stand seit der Wiedervereinigung gefallen, die Wirtschaftsleistung...