Central bank communication plays an important role in shaping market participants’ expectations. This paper studies a simple nonlinear model of monetary policy in which agents have incomplete information about the economic environment. It shows that agents’ learning and the dynamics of the...

This paper considers the implications of an important source of model misspecification for the design of monetary policy rules: the assumed manner of expectations formation. In the model considered here, private agents seek to maximize their objectives subject to standard constraints and the...

This paper demonstrates that an estimated, structural, small open-economy model of the Canadian economy cannot account for the substantial influence of foreign-sourced disturbances identified in numerous reduced-form studies. The benchmark model assumes uncorrelated shocks across countries and...

This paper explores optimal policy design in an estimated model of three small open economies: Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Within a class of generalized Taylor rules, we show that to stabilize a weighted objective of output, consumer price inflation and nominal interest variation optimal...

In this note we propose model selection criteria (MSC) for unconditional moment models using empirical likelihood (EL) statistics in the construction of the MSC The use of EL-statistics in lieu of the more common J-statistics leads to a much more transparent interpretation of the MSC by...

This paper considers the implications of an important source of model misspecification for the design of monetary policy rules: the assumed manner of expectations formation. Following a considerable literature on learning, it is assumed that private agents seek to maximize their objectives...

This paper proposes model selection criteria (MSC) for unconditional moment models using generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) statistics. The use of GEL-statistics in lieu of J-statistics (in the spirit of Andrews, 1999, Econometrica 67, 543-564; and Andrews and Lu, 2001, Journal of Econometrics...

This paper seeks to explain the strong contemporaneous relationship between Australian and foreign output growth. It does so by adopting a more disaggregated approach than previous work, focussing in particular on consumption and investment. The theoretical frameworks of the permanent income...