Measures of housing units with negative equity, in which the mortgage balance exceeds the value of the collateral housing unit, have become a necessary component in crafting policies to address the current foreclosure crisis. This article estimates negative equity in the U.S. nonprime mortgage...

[...]This article evaluates the short-term economic consequencesof the attack on Manhattan and the four other boroughsthat make up New York City. We begin with the deepest loss—that of human lives. We then look at the effects of the attack onthe inputs to the production process: labor and...

[...]In this article, we analyze the effects of September 11 on thelonger run prospects for the New York City economy. We findthat, on the one hand, several downside risks to the city’sgrowth outlook have arisen. In a worst-case scenario, theconcentration of the attack on Lower Manhattan has...

[...]This article describes a method by which we may moreaccurately predict regional economic activity. Specifically, wedevelop an index of leading economic indicators (LEI) forNew York State and for New Jersey over the 1972-99 period.We extend our earlier work (Orr, Rich, and Rosen 1999),...

[...]This paper analyzes the industrial restructuringprocess in the New York metropolitan area in the first halfof the 1990s.1 It shows that the restructuring was accompaniedby a decline in the labor force, particularly in NewYork, where the decline persisted through the first half ofthe 1990s....

This paper examines the linkage between economic activity and tax revenues for New York State and New York City. Drawing upon the methodology of Stock and Watson, we use a dynamic single-factor model to estimate indexes of coincident economic indicators. We also construct measures of the sales...

Major industrial and government restructurings have dominated employment reports in the New York-New Jersey region, leading to widespread pessimism about the region's job prospects. Nevertheless, for the past several years, the two states have managed to achieve modest job gains. In 1997,...

An index developed by the authors is used to track the U.S. dollar's performance against a number of foreign currencies. The authors' comparison of the index with the relative export growth rates of Japan and Germany suggests that in the 1990s the dollar stayed near levels that put the United...