Mortgage modifications have become an important component of public interventions designed to reduce foreclosures. In this paper, we examine how the structure of a mortgage modification affects the likelihood that the modified mortgage re-defaults over the next year. Using data on subprime...

This paper examines the linkage between economic activity and tax revenues for New York State and New York City. Drawing upon the methodology of Stock and Watson, we use a dynamic single-factor model to estimate indexes of coincident economic indicators. We also construct measures of the sales...

[...]This article evaluates the short-term economic consequencesof the attack on Manhattan and the four other boroughsthat make up New York City. We begin with the deepest loss—that of human lives. We then look at the effects of the attack onthe inputs to the production process: labor and...

[...]In this article, we analyze the effects of September 11 on thelonger run prospects for the New York City economy. We findthat, on the one hand, several downside risks to the city’sgrowth outlook have arisen. In a worst-case scenario, theconcentration of the attack on Lower Manhattan has...

[...]This article describes a method by which we may moreaccurately predict regional economic activity. Specifically, wedevelop an index of leading economic indicators (LEI) forNew York State and for New Jersey over the 1972-99 period.We extend our earlier work (Orr, Rich, and Rosen 1999),...

[...]This paper analyzes the industrial restructuringprocess in the New York metropolitan area in the first halfof the 1990s.1 It shows that the restructuring was accompaniedby a decline in the labor force, particularly in NewYork, where the decline persisted through the first half ofthe 1990s....