The US dollar is the most widely held currency in the world. In recent years, however, it suffered huge depreciation. In this paper, various risk models are used to forecast the Value-at-Risk (VaR) in holding the currency. Being a quantile measure, VaR disregards valuable information conveyed by...

This paper examines the within-market and cross-market information content of order flow for stocks, corporate bonds and Treasury bonds in China. With daily-aggregated tick-by-tick data over three years on the Shanghai Security Exchange, we find negative cross-asset effects of order flow on...

Extreme losses caused by leverage and financial derivatives highlight the need to backtest Value-at-Risk (VaR) based on the sizes of tail losses, because the risk measure currently used disregards losses beyond the VaR boundary. While Basel II backtests VaR by counting the number of exceptions,...

Dufour and Engle (J. Finance (2000) 2467) find evidence of increased presence of informed traders when the NYSE markets are most active. No such evidence, however, can be found by Manganelli (J. Financial Markets (2005) 377) for the infrequently traded stocks. This article investigates the issue...

We show that the probability of information-based trade (PIN) played a significant role in explaining monthly returns on Shanghai A shares over the period 2001 to 2006. In particular, PIN, as approximated by order imbalance as a proportion of total transactions, appears to explain returns even...

Let e and Σ be respectively the vector of shocks and its variance covariance matrix in a linear system of equations in reduced form. This article shows that a unique orthogonal variance decomposition can be obtained if we impose a restriction that maximizes the trace of A, a positive definite...

We analyse the well-known TORQ dataset of trades on the NYSE over a 3-month period, breaking down transactions depending on whether the active or passive side was institutional or private. This allows us to compare the returns on the different trade categories. We find that, however we analyse...

Dufour and Engle (J. Finance (2000) 2467) find evidence of an increased presence of informed traders when the NYSE markets are most active. No such evidence, however, can be found by Manganelli (J. Financial Markets (2005) 377) for the infrequently traded stocks. In this paper, we fit a...

In this paper, we examine the relative importance of the cash flow and accruals components of earnings in explaining the variation in UK company equity returns, together with the extent to which these relationships vary by auditor quality. We use a multivariate time-series approach that can be...

We use transactions data to explore the magnet effects of price limit rules on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE). When limit hits are imminent, stock prices are found to approach the price limits at faster rates, with higher trading intensity and larger price variation, supporting the magnet...