Building on the growing evidence on the importance of large data sets for empirical macroeconomic modeling, we use a large factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) model to analyze how global developments affect the Canadian economy. We focus on several sources of shocks, including commodity prices, foreign...

We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter (‘nowcasts’ and ‘forecasts’, respectively). We use three types of mixed-frequency models, one based on an economic activity indicator (Liu et al., 2007), one based on...

We evaluate forecasts for the euro area in data-rich and ‘data-lean’ environments by comparing three different approaches: a simple PMI model based on Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs), a dynamic factor model with euro area data, and a dynamic factor model with data from the euro plus...

"Online auction sites like eBay provide ways to measure what consumers buy and how much they pay. Does this imply that consumers pay similar prices, irrespective of their location? Comparing prices for homogeneous, tradable goods in the euro area and the United Kingdom, we find that prices...

Building on the growing evidence on the importance of large data sets for empirical macroeconomic modeling, we use a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) model with more than 260 series for 20 OECD countries to analyze how global developments affect the Canadian economy. We focus on several sources of...

We attempt to assess the effect of monetary policy in a panel model for 16 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). To answer the question of whether central banks actively create political business cycles, we focus on the short-term interest rate as...

Central banks do not operate in a vacuum. In this paper we analyse the fac-tors leading to external pressure or public support for European monetary policy. Moreover, based upon the findings for the Deutsche Bundesbank, some additional les-sons are drawn for the ECB. External pressure on the ECB...

In light of the US current account deficit, pressure is high on Asian countries to revalue their currencies. The calls from some US policymakers for tariffs on imports from China have sparked fears of a world-wide surge in protectionism. This study evaluates the risk of protectionism,...