To find out if gold remains to be unlinked with the crude oil market after the 2008 financial crisis, we investigated how long-run price linkages and price causalities among crude oil and gold markets changed before and after the crisis. To have a good reference, we also tested the same issue...

Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a) assert that every critique of their work on oil markets by Kilian and Zhou (2019a) is without merit. In addition, they make the case that key aspects of the economic and econometric analysis in the widely used oil market model of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and its...

Using time-varying BVARs, we find that oil price increases caused by oil supply shocks did not affect food commodity prices before the start of the millennium, but had positive spillover effects in more recent periods. Likewise, shortfalls in global food commodity supply--resulting from bad...

Following four years of relative stability at around $105 per barrel, oil prices have declined sharply since June 2014. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the sources of the recent decline in prices, and examines its macroeconomic, financial and policy implications. The recent drop...

In U.S. dollar terms, crude oil prices increased 525% from the end-of-2001 through July 31st, 2008. Was this rally yet another speculative bubble? Specifically, has the oil rally been based on speculative excess rather than fundamental supply-and-demand factors? In summary, this paper argues...

Information on economic policy uncertainty (EPU) does matter in predicting oil returns especially when accounting for omitted nonlinearities in the relationship between these two variables via a time-varying coefficient approach. In this work, we compare the forecastability of standard, Bayesian...

Can U.S. shale producers be regarded as the new swing producers in the crude oil markets? This brief paper will address this question from both a physical-oil-market standpoint and from an energy-financing standpoint. The article will conclude that basically the answer is no unless one adopts a...

This paper provides an analysis of the link between the global market for crude oil and oil futures risk premium at the aggregate level. It offers empirical evidence on whether the compensation for risk required by the speculators depends on the type of the structural shock of interest....

This paper uses a new empirical strategy to identify oil supply news shocks within a Non-Causal VAR model of standard global oil market variables. These shocks explain most of the movements in oil production over a long but finite time horizon. Our findings highlight the prominent role of...

We contribute to the task of identifying trends and cycles in energy prices by examining very long series of prices for coal and oil, going back to 1650 in the case of coal and 1859 in the case of oil. We find annual rates of increase in real price of greater than two percent are found for coal...