At present, oil markets appear to be behaving in a fashion similar to that in the late 1970s and early 1980s when oil prices rose sharply over an extended period. Furthermore, like at that time, analysts are split on whether such increases will persist or reverse, and if so by how much. The...

The substantial fluctuations in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the...

This article focuses on the price inelasticity of demand for crude oil in the short run and its implications. We show that any producer with a share greater than the elasticity of demand, weighted by its profit margin, could benefit by curbing supply to increase profits. This means high cost...

This paper examines the contribution of market expectations to commodity price dynamics. It proposes a dynamic competitive storage framework with an expectations shock explicitly along with concurrent shocks to study the commodity price movements. This allows for a more refined analysis of the...

In recent years, the crude oil price has risen from the $20s to the $140s. This rise is modeled using a state space regression model with time-varying beta coefficients. Explanatory variables used include days of stock cover, refinery utilization, speculative long interest and market...

Oil and gold are the two strategic commodities which have received much attention. The prices of oil and gold, which are the world’s most traded commodities, are very volatile. This paper aims to analyze the impact of oil shock and gold price on the business cycles of some developed countries:...

This paper focuses on the effect of the oil shock of 1973 on US gasoline demand by examining the price elasticities of demand before and after the 1973 embargo. Price elasticities provide useful input to the development of public policy dealing with taxation and pollution control. Understanding...

Marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) are one of the favorite instruments to analyze the impacts of the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol and emissions trading. As shown in this paper one important factor that influences MACCs are energy prices. This leads to the question of how to define...

This paper aims to study the recent increase in the spread of refined-crude petroleum prices in the US. We analyze the evolution of crude oil prices, refining costs, distribution costs, and taxes, comparing the pre and post covid periods. Fractional integration and cointegration methodologies...