Alsakka, Rasha; ap Gwilym, Owain - In: Journal of Banking & Finance 34 (2010) 11, pp. 2614-2626
This paper analyses lead-lag relationships in sovereign ratings across five agencies, and finds evidence of interdependence in rating actions. Upgrade (downgrade) probabilities are much higher, and downgrade (upgrade) probabilities are much lower for a sovereign issuer with a recent upgrade...