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China's March to Prosperity: Reforms to Avoid the Middle-income Trap

Koen, Vincent; Herd, Richard; Hill, Sam - Economics Department, Organisation de Coopération et … - 2013

China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011277005

Fundamental shock selection in DSGE models

Ferroni, Filippo; Grassi, Stefano; León-Ledesma, Miguel A. - 2015

DSGE models are typically estimated assuming the existence of certain structural shocks that drive macroeconomic fluctuations. We analyze the consequences of introducing nonfundamental shocks for the estimation of DSGE model parameters and propose a method to select the structural shocks driving...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010517720

What drives the business cycle in a small open economy? : evidence from an estimated DSGE Model of the Danish economy

Pedersen, Jesper; Ravn, Søren Hove - 2013

Estimated DSGE models have become the standard workhorse model for empirically based macroeconomic analysis in recent years. In this paper, we present an estimated DSGE model for Denmark. The model has been estimated using Bayesian methods and a dataset consisting of 23 macroeconomic variables....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010224820

A New-Keynesian DSGE Model for Forecasting the South African Economy

Gupta, Rangan - 2010

This paper develops a New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model for forecasting the growth rate of output, inflation, and the nominal short-term interest rate (91 days Treasury Bill rate) for the South African economy. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138053

A Small-Scale DSGE Model for Forecasting the South African Economy

Gupta, Rangan - 2010

This paper uses a version of Hansen's (1985) Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to forecast the South African economy. The calibrated model, based on annual data over the period of 1970-2000, is used to generate one- to eight-quarters-ahead out-of-sample forecast errors for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138056

Selecting Primal Innovations in DSGE Models

Ferroni, Filippo - 2017

DSGE models are typically estimated assuming the existence of certain primal shocks that drive macroeconomic fluctuations. We analyze the consequences of estimating shocks that are "non-existent" and propose a method to select the primal shocks driving macroeconomic uncertainty. Forcing these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012944029

Fiscal DSGE model for Latvia

Buss, Ginters; Grüning, Patrick - In: Baltic journal of economics 23 (2023) 1, pp. 1-44

purposes tailored to Latvia, a small open economy in a monetary union. The fiscal sector elements comprise public investment …-to-mouth) households, cyclical unemployment benefits, foreign ownership of public debt, import content in public consumption and investment …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014319795

Choosing the European fiscal rule

Buss, Ginters; Grüning, Patrick; Tkačevs, Oļegs - In: Baltic journal of economics 24 (2024) 1, pp. 116-144

In order to quantitatively assess the potential effects from the ongoing transformation of the fiscal framework of the European Union, we evaluate the economic and public finance stabilization properties of two benchmark fiscal rules using a New Keynesian small open economy model. If these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015065544

Micro jumps, macro humps : monetary policy and business cycles in an estimated HANK model

Auclert, Adrien; Rognlie, Matthew; Straub, Ludwig - 2020

shock. Our estimated model uncovers a central role for investment in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, as high … MPCs amplify the investment response in the data. This force also generates a procyclical response of consumption to … investment shocks, leading our model to infer a central role for these shocks as a source of business cycles. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154622

Central Bank Communication Choices : Adverse Selection, Volatility and Liquidity in a Market With Fast and Slow Traders

Benamar, Hedi; Chaboud, Alain; Vega, Clara - 2021

We study the impact of different central bank communication practices on the trading behavior and profitability of fast and slow traders in the foreign exchange market. We focus, in particular, on how the Bank of Japan's practice of introducing some randomness to the time at which it releases...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013247078