When and how should a fundraiser ask for a donation from an individual facing an uncertain bonus income? A standard model of expected utility over outcomes predicts that the individual’s before choice – her ex-ante commitment conditional on her income – will be the same as her choice after...

We perform an incentivized experiment designed to assess the accuracy of beliefs about characteristics and decisions. Subjects are asked to declare some specific choices and characteristics with different levels of observability from an external point of view, and typically formed through real...

When and how should a fundraiser ask for a donation from an individual facing an uncertain bonus income? A standard model of expected utility over outcomes predicts that the individual’s before choice – her ex-ante commitment conditional on her income – will be the same as her choice after...

Prior studies of strategic voting in multi-party elections potentially overestimate the extent of it by counting erroneously votes cast under different motivations as strategic votes. We propose a method that corrects some of this overestimation by distinguishing between strategic voting (voting...

We study the bilateral trade problem put forward by Myerson and Satterthwaite (1983) under the assumption that agents are loss-averse. We use the model developed by Kőszegi and Rabin (2006, 2007) to find optimal mechanisms for the minimal subsidy, revenue maximization and welfare maximization...

The paper studies learning with data (quasi-)differencing where agents need to (quasi-)difference data and then use an otherwise standard least squares learning procedure. It (1) establishes that the E-stability Principle is still valid for analyzing the convergence of the learning with (quasi-)...

A model of business cycles in which households do not have knowledge of the long-run growth of endogenous variables and continually learn about this growth is presented. The model features comovement and mutual reinforcement of households' growth expectations and market outcomes and suggests a...

We study the impact of diverse beliefs on conduct of monetary policy. We use a New Keynesian Model solved with a quadratic approximation. Aggregation renders the belief distribution an aggregate state variable. Diverse expectations change standard results about a smooth trade-off between...

We introduce the speculation elicitation task (SET) to measure speculative tendencies of individuals. The resulting SET-score allows us to investigate the role of individual speculative behavior on experimental asset market bubbles. The experimental results show that overpricing in asset markets...

The rational expectations hypothesis for survey and model-based inflation forecasts − from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Greenbook respectively − is examined by properly taking into account the persistence characteristics of the data. The finding of near-unit-root effects in...