While some of the recent surge of oil prices can be attributed to robust global demandat a time of tight production capacities, commentators occasionally also blame theimpact of speculators for part of the price pressure. We propose an empirical oil market model with heterogeneous speculators....

We study two person-betting games with inconsistent commonly know beliefs, using an experimentalapproach. In our experimental games, participants bet against one another, each bettorchoosing one of two possible outcomes, and payoff odds are know at the time bets are placed.Bettors’ beliefs are...

Using a symmetric 2-person prisoners’ dilemma as the base game, each playerreceives a signal for the number of rounds to be played with the same partner.The actual number of rounds (the length of the supergame) is determined bythe maximal signal where each player expects the other’s signal...

The higher our aspirations, the higher the probability that we have toadjust them downwards when forming more realistic expectations later on.This paper shows that the costs induced by high aspirations are not trivial.We first develop a theoretical framework to identify the factors that...

Within the setting of two simple two-person coordinationgames the formation of subjective strategies is observed experimentally.Though the structure of the game is unknown playersuse their actions in order to coordinate on a specific equilibrium.Strategies enable them to interpret the...

This paper focuses on egocentric biases in financial decisions. Subjects first designa portfolio, whereby each combination of assets yields the same expected returnand variance of returns. They are then confronted with two alternative portfolios;the average portfolio and the portfolio of one’s...

A framework is proposed for organizing phenomena related to the (mis)predictionof utility, in particular neglecting adaptation. A categorization is introduced that accounts forasymmetries in misprediction. In decision-making, goods and activities satisfying extrinsicdesires are more salient than...

Neoclassical economic theory rules out systematic errors in consumptionchoice. According to the basic view, individuals know what they choose. They areable to predict how much utility an activity or a good produces for them now and inthe future and they can maximize their utility. This implies...

In important situations, individual decision-making is systematically biased. Whendeciding (rather than consuming), extrinsic attributes of choice options are more salient thanintrinsic attributes. People overestimate extrinsic attributes and therefore put too much effortinto acquiring income...

We conduct a laboratory experiment to study whether people in-tuitively use real-option strategies in a dynamic investment setting.The participants were asked to play as an oil manager and make pro-duction decisions in response to a simulated mean-reverting oil price.Using cluster analysis,...