Income distribution may be related to fundamentals affecting economic growth and to labor market policies. Noting that inequality is affected by unemployment. This paper presents a model in which labor market policies affect unemployment which in turn affects inequality. The model also includes...

Vertical tax externalities between levels of government can occur in federal structures, with responses to the tax policies of one level of government affecting the tax base of the other. Such effects mostly arise when federal and state governments co-occupy the same tax base. This paper...

The concepts of potential output and the output gap are central to the IMF’s analytical work in providing policy recommendations to member governments. This key role has stimulated research at the IMF to develop and refine estimation techniques. This paper summarizes the methodology and...

The paper studies determinants and consequences of sharp reductions in current account imbalances (reversals) in low- and middle-income countries. It poses two questions: what triggers reversals, and what factors explain how costly reversals are? It finds that both domestic variables, such as...

A typical strategy used by speculators to launch an attack on a fixed exchange regime is the use of forward markets. Central banks also intervene in forward markets to counter speculation. This paper addresses the question of how an attack is launched on the forward market, and what the optimal...

This paper deals with liberalization and the evolution of output during the transition from plan to market. It explains why strong liberalization leads to a comparatively steep fall in output early in the transition, but a relatively strong recovery later on. Because it takes time to restructure...

This paper argues that as countries open their capital regimes, the appropriate fiscal stance should become more conservative than when capital is immobile. Further fiscal adjustment may be necessary in the face of large and volatile capital flows. However, the required changes would be smaller....

Systemic bank restructuring must be the responsibility of one government authority only, with other authorities providing support and analytical help. The restructuring authority, whose tasks are enumerated and discussed, should preferably be a separate and temporary agency reporting to the...

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) exercise at the IMF evolved during the 1980s, partly in response to demands by policymakers in national finance ministries for objective and internationally comparable projections and policy scenarios. The exercise had begun as a staff initiative, encouraged by...

This paper examines monetary transmission in France using the vector autoregression methodology. Interest rates are decomposed into external and domestic components, and a nonrecursive contemporaneous structure is used to identify the system. Innovations in the external component are found to...