Genaue Prognosen von Absatzmöglichkeiten und Marktpotenzialen für Innovationen können heute ein entscheidender Faktor sein, um sich auf dem Markt zu behaupten. Ein verspäteter Markteintritt kann gravierende Auswirkungen auf den Umsatz und somit auf den Erfolg des Unternehmens haben. Dieser...

This paper evaluates the forecast performance of boosting, a variable selection device, and compares it with the forecast combination schemes and dynamic factor models presented in Stock and Watson (2006). Using the same data set and comparison methodology, we find that boosting is a serious...

Common approaches to test for the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical Chi-square test for independence, Fisher’s exact test or the Pesaran and Timmerman (1992) test for market timing. These tests are asymptotically valid for serially independent observations....

Genaue Prognosen von Absatzmöglichkeiten und Marktpotenzialen für Innovationen können heute ein entscheidender Faktor sein, um sich auf dem Markt zu behaupten. Ein verspäteter Markteintritt kann gravierende Auswirkungen auf den Umsatz und somit auf den Erfolg des Unternehmens haben. Dieser...

This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where...

Recent work by Clements and Hendry have shown why forecasting systems that are in terms of differences, dVARs, can be more accurate than econometric models that include levels variables, ECMs. For example, dVAR forecasts are insulated from parameter non-constancies in the long run mean of the...

This study presents an extension of the Gaussian process regression model for multiple-input multiple-output forecasting. This approach allows modelling the cross-dependencies between a given set of input variables and generating a vectorial prediction. Making use of the existing correlations in...

This paper provides a framework for the early assessment of current U.S. nominal GDP growth, which has been considered a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy-makers have available at the time predictions are made....

This paper documents multivariate forecast disagreement among professional forecasters of the Euro area economy and discusses implications for models of heterogeneous expectation formation. Disagreement varies over time and is strongly counter-cyclical. Disagreement is positively correlated with...

We investigate the importance of taking the spatial interaction of turbines inside a wind park into account. This article provides two tests that check for wake effects and thus, take spatial interdependence into account. Those effects are suspected to have a negative influence on wind power...