Estimates of the response of agricultural supply to movements in expected price display curiously large variation across crops, regions, and time periods. We argue that this anomaly may be traced, at least in part, to the statistical properties of the commonly-used econometric estimator, which...

We propose a constructive, multivariate framework for assessing agreement between (generally misspecified) dynamic equilibrium models and data, which enables a complete second-order comparison of the dynamic properties of models and data. We use bootstrap algorithms to evaluate the significance...

The authors propose methods for evaluating and improving density forecasts. They focus primarily on methods that are applicable regardless of the particular user's loss function, though they take explicit account of the relationships between density forecasts, action choices, and the...