This paper compares Bayesian estimators with different prior choices for the time variation of the coefficients of Time Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression models using Monte Carlo Simulations. Since the commonly used prior choice only allows for a tiny amount of time variation, less...

This paper combines results of a questionnaire survey with firm level data in order to better explain firm competitiveness. To do this, survey-based information about perceived factors is used to improve explanatory power of quantitative factors. Results from the firm level panel data model...

This paper disaggregates energy consumption and GDP data according to end-use to analyze a broad number of developed and developing countries grouped in panels by similar characteristics. Panel long-run causality is assessed with a relatively under-utilized approach recommend by Canning and...

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BIS) has recently sanctioned Expected Shortfall (ES) as the market risk measure to be used for banking regulatory purposes, replacing the well-known Value-at-Risk (VaR). This change is motivated by the appealing theoretical properties of ES as a...

In view of the remarkable growth performance of sub-Saharan African countries since the mid-1990s, we investigate the drivers of economic growth in the region. Above all, we find that more investment, enhanced macroeconomic stability, less conflicts, improved terms of trade, and better...

We study the short-term impact of Connecticut's Jobs First welfare reform experiment on women's labor supply and welfare participation decisions. A non-parametric optimizing model is shown to restrict the set of counterfactual choices compatible with each woman's actual choice. These revealed...

We examine the long-term impact of expansions to Medicaid and the State Children's Health Insurance Program that occurred in the 1980's and 1990's. With administrative data from the IRS, we calculate longitudinal health insurance eligibility from birth to age 18 for children in cohorts affected...

In this paper we provide empirical measures of central bank credibility and augment these with historical narratives from eleven countries. To the extent we are able to apply reliable institutional information we can also indirectly assess their role in influencing the credibility of the...

We empirically investigate the effect of uncertainty on corporate hiring. Using novel data from the labor market for MBA graduates, we show that uncertainty regarding how well job candidates fit with a firm's industry hinders hiring, and that firms value probationary work arrangements that...

Does financial aid increase college attendance and completion? Selection bias and the high implicit tax rates imposed by overlapping aid programs make this question difficult to answer. This paper reports initial findings from a randomized evaluation of a large privately-funded scholarship...