Using information contained in forward interest rates, this paper attempts to assess the probability that European Monetary Union (EMU) occurs and that a particular country participates. It is shown that since the Madrid summit, the public has become increasingly optimistic about the realization...

This paper reassesses the Fisher effect using German data. It argues that the empirical rejection of the Fisher effect in previous studies, i.e., the finding of nominal interest rates not fully adjusting to changes in inflation, may be attributed to the particular time series behavior of...

Discount rate changes always receive considerable attention in financial markets and a bulk of empirical papers shows that asset markets react to them. However, among researchers, there is no consensus yet about why markets respond to such changes. This paper analyses this issue for the...

This paper argues that natural resource abundance creates opportunities for rent-seeking behavior and is an important factor in determining a country’s level of corruption. In a simple growth model, we illustrate the interrelationships between natural resources, corruption, and economic...

We investigate the consequences of the 1992-1993 EMS crises, which resulted in the widening of the exchange rate bands, on the long-run linkages between the daily 1-month-Eurorates on German Mark, US-Dollar and French Franc. First, within a Gaussian VAR, both the US Eurorate and the...

This paper reassesses the long-run relation between nominal interest rates and inflation using German data. It shows that the empirical rejection of the strict Fisher effect in previous studies, i.e., the finding of interest rates not fully adjusting to changes in inflation, can be attributed to...

Discount rate changes always receive considerable attention in financial markets. Two hypotheses compete to explain financial market reactions: the direct ‘borrowing cost effect’ and the announcement effect. This paper examines the issue for the Bundesbank’s discount rate changes after...

This study uses non-stationary econometrics to analyze asymmetry and dominance within the EMS through interest rate linkages between the French franc, the German deutsche mark and the US dollar. High frequency data (daily Eurorates from April 1983 to the end of 1992) are used for their better...