Nowadays, speeding is one of the most relevant problems for traffic safety and most resistant to change in motorized countries. The key instruments in Speed Management Policy are speed limits. This road safety strategy is often established or changed, in order to save fuel during periods of...

This paper models cyclical behaviour in property crime series (burglary and theft) in relation to the macroeconomic activity indicators in England andWales in the period from 1955 to 2001. Using unobserved components (UC) time series models, univariate time series analysis suggests that recorded...

We use an unobserved components model to extract the foreign exchange risk premium from the excess ex post returns of East Asian currency assets over US dollar assets and derive the implied expected future spot rates of East Asian currencies against the US dollar. Empirical results, obtained...

In this paper we model the monthly number of passengers flying with the Spanish airline IBERIA from January 1985 to December 1992 and predict future values of the series up to October 1994. This series is characterized by strong seasonal variations and by having an upward trend which has a...

Two possibilities of analysis of economic cycles are studied in this document. Firstly, filter-design approaches consisting of the extraction of the information content of certain signals between two specific frequencies, as well as below or above certain frequencies. Secondly, model-based...

Within the context of the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH), the predictions for consumption depend crucially upon the process for income. In this paper, we consider an unobserved components model that allows for both asymmetric transitory movements and correlation between permanent and...

The link between inflation and inflation uncertainty is evaluated using Peruvian data, in a context of changing monetary policies because of regime shifts. A Markov regime-switching heteroskedasticity model that includes unobserved components is used. The model shows how periods of high (low)...

Three methodologies to estimate the natural interest rate, NIR, are implemented for the Colombian economy. Two methods are statistical filters and the third involves some economic theory. The first method is based on unobserved components decomposition of the real interest rate and explores the...

Three methodologies to estimate the natural interest rate, NIR, are implemented for the Colombian economy. Two methods are statistical filters and the third involves some economic theory. The first method is based on unobserved components decomposition of the real interest rate and explores the...

A time-varying natural rate of interest is estimated for the euro area using a multivariate unobserved components model. The problem of aggregating interest rate data for the pre-EMU period is directly addressed, and a simple method in order to adjust the risk premia in the interest rate data...