From time to time, economies undergo far-reaching structural changes. In this paper we investigate the consequences of structural breaks in the factor loadings for the specification and estimation of factor models based on principal components and suggest test procedures for structural breaks....

The occurrence of unit roots in economic time series has far reaching consequences for univariate as well as multivariate econometric modelling. Therefore, unit root tests are nowadays the starting point of most empirical time series studies. The oldest and most widely used test is due to Dickey...

Cycles play an important role when analyzing market phenomena. In many markets, both overlaying (weekly, seasonal or business cycles) and time-varying cycles (e.g. asymmetric lengths of peak and off peak or variation of business cycle length) exist simultaneously. Identification of these market...

In this paper we evaluate the performance of several structural break tests under various DGPs. Concretely we look at size and power properties of CUSUM based, LM and Wald volatility break tests. In a simulation study we derive the properties of the tests under shifts in the unconditional and...

Forecasting regional variables provides very important information for political, institutional and economic agents. However, in the present context characterized by important decline of economies, heterogeneous data and regional interdependencies, it is even more difficult to carry out accurate...

We analyze the issue of the impact of multiple breaks on monetary neutrality results, using a long annual international data set. We empirically verify whether neutrality propositions remain addressable (and if so, whether they hold or not), when unit root tests are carried out allowing for...

We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best...

This paper extends recent research on the behaviour of the t-statistic in a long-horizon regression (LHR). We assume that the explanatory and dependent variables are generated according to the following models: a linear trend stationary process, a broken trend stationary process, a unit root...

In this paper, several seasonal unit root tests are analysed in the context of structural breaks at known time and a new break corrected test is suggested. We show that the widely used HEGY test as well as an LM variant thereof are asymptotically robust to seasonal mean shifts of finite...

This paper documents the existence of large structural breaks in the unconditional correlations among the British pound, Norwegian krone, Swedish krona, Swiss franc, and euro exchange rates (against the US dollar) during the period 1994-2003. Using the framework of dynamic conditional...