The internal estimates of Loss Given Default (LGD) must reflect economic downturn conditions, thus estimating the “downturn LGD”, as the new Basel Capital Accord Basel II establishes. We suggest a methodology to estimate the downturn LGD distribution to overcome the arbitrariness of the...

Most existing semi-parametric estimation procedures for binary choice models are based on the maximum score, maximum likelihood, or nonlinear least squares principles. These methods have two problems. They are difficult to compute and they may result in multiple local optima because they require...

We construct monthly economic-activity indices for 51 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas for 1990 to 2014. Each index is computed via a dynamic factor model that includes 14 variables measuring various aspects of economic activity in a metro area. We estimate the dynamic factor model using the...

The em algorithm can be used to compute maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters for skew-t mixture models. We show that the intractable expectations needed in the e-step can be written out analytically. These closed form expressions bypass the need for numerical estimation procedures,...

Wind energy has the advantages of being clean, having a zero-cost primary energy source (wind) and having low operating and maintenance costs. Despite these advantages, it is difficult to manage due to its variable condition. Recently, there has been an explosion of forecasting tools to...

In regression models, the classical assumption of normal distribution of the random observational errors is often violated, masking some important features of the variability present in the data. Some practical actions to solve the problem, like transformation of variables to achieve normality,...

Marshall and Olkin (1997)  [14] provided a general method to introduce a parameter into a family of distributions and discussed in details about the exponential and Weibull families. They have also briefly introduced the bivariate extension, although not any properties or inferential issues...

This paper considers the problem of estimating fixed effects, random effects and variance components for the multi-variate random effects model with complete and incomplete data. It also considers making inferences about fixed and random effects, a problem which requires careful consideration of...

We provide a comprehensive overview of latent Markov (LM) models for the analysis of longitudinal data. The main assumption behind these models is that the response variables are conditionally independent given a latent process which follows a first-order Markov chain. We first illustrate the...

In the context of multilevel longitudinal data, where sample units are collected in clusters, an important aspect that should be accounted for is the unobserved heterogeneity between sample units and between clusters. For this aim we propose an approach based on nested hidden (latent) Markov...