Two types of transitions can be found in the Markovian Arrival process or MAP: with and without arrivals. In transient transitions the chain jumps from one state to another with no arrival; in effective transitions, a single arrival occurs. We assume that in practice, only arrival times are...

We propose an alternate parameterization of stationary regular finite-state Markov chains, and a decomposition of the parameter into time reversible and time irreversible parts. We demonstrate some useful properties of the decomposition, and propose an index for a certain type of time...

This paper introduces an upgraded version of MSVARlib, a Gauss and Ox- Gauss compliant library, focusing on Multivariate Markov Switching Regressions in their most general specification. This new set of procedures allows to estimate, through classical optimization methods, models belonging to...

The majority of modelling and inference regarding Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) assumes that the number of underlying states is known a priori. However, this is often not the case and thus determining the appropriate number of underlying states for a HMM is of considerable interest. This paper...

This paper proposes a time series knowledge mining framework, designed to favor the synergy between subsequence time series clustering and predictive tools such as Hidden Markov Models. Many tasks for temporal data mining rely heavily on the choice of the representation scheme and the...

This paper presents a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure, which is a special case of the Regime Switching Dynamic Correlation (RSDC) of Pelletier (2006). This model which we have named Hierarchical RSDC (HRSDC), has been built with the hierarchical...

This research models the dynamics of customer relationships using typical transaction data. Our proposed model permits not only capturing the dynamics of customer relationships, but also incorporating the effect of the sequence of customer-firm encounters on the dynamics of customer...

Characterization of financial crisis with hybridHMC-MLP models Violent turbulences are often striking the financial markets and an Index of Market Shocks (IMS) was recently introduced in the attempt of quantifying these turbulences. Regime switching linear models have already been used in...

How many cartels are there? The answer is important in assessing the efficiency of competition policy. We present a Hidden Markov Model that answers the question, taking into account that often we do not know whether a cartel exists in an industry or not. Our model identifies key policy...