In accordance with Basel Capital Accords, the Capital Requirements (CR) for market risk exposure of banks is a nonlinear function of Value-at-Risk (VaR). Importantly, the CR is calculated based on a bank’s actual portfolio, i.e. the portfolio represented by its current holdings. To tackle...

Der Value at Risk ist die am stärksten verbreitete Kennzahl zur Bestimmung des Risikos bei Finanzinstituten. Für diese gibt es bezüglich Theorie, Simulation und empirischer Anwendung bereits ein breites Spektrum an Literatur. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit werden verschiedene Methoden zur Schätzung...

An efficient and accurate approach is proposed for forecasting Value at Risk [VaR] and Expected Shortfall [ES] measures in a Bayesian framework. This consists of a new adaptive importance sampling method for Quantile Estimation via Rapid Mixture of t approximations [QERMit]. As a first step the...