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This paper explores the stability of the relation between money demand for M3 and inflation in the euro area by … including the recent period of the financial crisis. Evidence is based on a cointegration analysis, where inflation and asset … inflation are identified. The results indicate that the equilibrium evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand. In the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009427840
Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010248220
This paper explores the stability of the relation between money demand for M3 and inflation in the euro area by … including the recent period of the financial crisis. Evidence is based on a cointegration analysis, where inflation and asset … inflation are identified. The results indicate that the equilibrium evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand. In the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130684
countryspecific measures, particularly since the start of EMU, and is useful to predict country-specific inflation. However, it … generally does not encompass country-specific money overhang measures as predictors of inflation. Hence, aggregate money … ; money overhang ; inflation forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003746606
reducing the average inflation rate while there was a strong recovery of the output. However, there are accumulated risks in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014075611
.0% of GDP. The maximal amount of seigniorage revenue that can be extracted at a constant rate of inflation is not far from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123675
During the U.S. Civil War, the Confederate Congress adopted three currency reforms that were intended to reduce the quantity of Treasury notes in circulation by inducing the money-holding public to exchange their notes for long-term bonds. In this paper, we examine the political factors that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899779
contribution of fluctuations in inflation to this particular link. In the data, a temporary rise in inflation causes real commodity … prices to rise, as does a rise in trend inflation. We find that a simple dynamic equilibrium model of commodity supply and … demand gives a realistic response of real commodity prices to inflation. Based on historical simulations, shocks to inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274442
This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293489
The paper presents the welfare cost of inflation in a banking time economy that models exchange credit through a bank … welfare cost of a 10% inflation rate instead of zero, for comparison to other estimates, as well as the cost of a 2% inflation … rate instead of a zero inflation rate. The zero rate is specified as the US inflation rate target in the 1978 Employment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012012509