Similar Search Results

NAIRU Estimates for Germany : New Evidence on the Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Off

Kajuth, Florian - 2016

The paper estimates the NAIRU from a Phillips curve relationship in the state-space framework. To identify the … economic relation on the basis of which the NAIRU is derived …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991082

The unemployment-inflation trade-off revisited : the Phillips curve in COVID times

Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; … - 2024

Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, 𝑢𝑡 ∗ , in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501075

A Kalman-Filter Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment

Claar, Victor V. - 2009

The terms "NAIRU" and "natural rate of unemployment" are not interchangeable. Further, while there is a consensus that … the NAIRU represents an empirical macroeconomic relationship, little agreement exists regarding what is meant by the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014209548

Inflação e nível de atividade no Brasil : estimativas via curva de Phillips

Brito, Leandro N. (contributor); … - 2008

This paper estimates the Brazilian NAILO (Nonaccelerating Inflation Level of Output), obtains (Bayesian) probability bands for the Nailo and for its growth rate, and investigates the relationship between deviations of output with respect to the Nailo and the acceleration of inflation. As...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003772458

Estimation of NAIRU with Inflation Expectation Data

Härdle, Wolfgang K. - 2017

Estimating natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is important for understanding the joint dynamics of unemployment … with NAIRU in a model consistent way. We estimate a structural model with forward and backward looking Phillips curve …, we find that the estimated NAIRU tracks unemployment rate closely, except for the high inflation period (late 1970s …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971418

Lessons for forecasting unemployment in the United States : use flow rates, mind the trend

Meyer, Brent; Tasci, Murat - 2015

This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced-form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484066

Oil Wealth and Real Exchange Rates: The FEER for Norway

Akram, Q. Farooq - 2004

It is often argued that Norway's sizeable net foreign assets based on its petroleum wealth imply an appreciation of its real exchange rate to a permanently strong level. We investigate this issue within the framework of the fundamental equilibrium real exchange rate (FEER) approach. It is shown...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143630

Оценивание равновесного реального обменного курса российского рубля

Shumilov, Andrei; Sosunov, Kirill - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2005

Following methodological approach proposed by Edwards, the paper estimates empirically Russia's equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) for the period 1995–2003. ERER is defined as the relative price of non-tradables to tradables consistent with the simultaneous achievement of internal and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259205

Oil wealth and real exchange rates: The FEER for Norway

Akram, Q. Farooq - Norges Bank - 2004

It is often argued that Norway’s sizeable net foreign assets based on its petroleum wealth imply an appreciation of its real exchange rate to a permanently strong level. We investigate this issue within the framework of the fundamental equilibrium real exchange rate (FEER) approach. It is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005292510

Estimating the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Namibia

Eita, J. H.; Sichei, Moses M. - Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and … - 2006

This paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate and the resulting real exchange rate misalignment in Namibia during the period 1970 to 2004. The equilibrium real exchange rate is determined by trade and exchange restrictions (openness), terms of trade and ratio of investment to GDP. An...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005773205