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The paper examines misalignment of the Turkish lira between 1998 to 2008. Misalignment, specifically overvaluation has been linked to fixed exchange rate regimes. By studying the case of Turkey during this period which covers both a fixed and floating exchange rate regime, we contribute to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111300
This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that hysteresis had on its development. Using the … Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique … is applied here using explicit exogenous variables. In order to test for hysteresis, the dependence of the Nairu on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003744523
This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that monetary policy had on its development. Using the … Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique … explain a quarter of the increase in the Nairu between 1980 and 1995. This indicates the possibility of a long-run non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011438545
The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) is a variable of interest to policy makers as it provides … an estimate of the degree of labour market slack in the economy. However, the NAIRU is unobservable, and must be … used to forecast wages growth at the Australian Treasury. Australia's NAIRU was previously thought to be around 5 per cent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012511675
This paper provides an institutional-analytical account of changes in the structure of the US Phillips curve (PC) during the post-war period. It does so by restoring conflict and power to the forefront of macro theory and, in particular, the wage- and price-setting behaviour of workers and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013347209
Persistently high unemployment rates in Germany have led to a long-running controversy on the causes of the unemployment problem. This paper aims to re­view the contribution of Keynesian and monetarist theories to this controversy and explores empirically their implications for the explanation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474695
In this paper, I have investigated the out of sample forecast performance for a case study on the determination of the nominal exchange rate for USD vis-à-vis IN¬R under VEC, VAR (in first difference) and Bayesian VAR specification with the help of set of economic theories. The forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910274
This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates for 29 countries from the OECD. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in u causes u* to change in the same direction, and therefore has permanent effects. For our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705521
This paper estimates the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) for 15 OECD economies from 1990 to … the NAIRU. A possible negative externality of employment protection legislation is a higher level of structural … dismissals for regular contracts and the NAIRU. The effect of strictness of employment protection for regular contracts is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111665
We estimate a multivariate unobserved components-stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US Dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries' monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326550