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We estimate a linear and a piecewise linear Phillips curve model with regional labor market data for West German and Neue Länder. Employing regional observations allows us to country difference the data. This eliminates, under the assumption of homogeneous Länder, supply shocks and changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011524902
Estimating natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is important for understanding the joint dynamics of unemployment … with NAIRU in a model consistent way. We develop and estimate a structural model with forward and backward looking Phillips … out that the estimated NAIRU using our methodology tracks the unemployment process closely except for the high inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010479311
An approach to decomposing and interpreting the inflation process is proposed. It suggests that the low U.S. inflation rate in recent years reflects a structural development, but that the low levels of unemployment may be a mainly cyclical phenomenon.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321308
Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). By contrast, Gordon (1997) in his "triangle model" of inflation … models a time-varying NAIRU. We combine both approaches and estimate state-space models of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips … curve (NKPC), where excess demand is measured by the unemployment gap and the NAIRU is allowed to vary over time as in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425873
An approach to decomposing and interpreting the inflation process is proposed. It suggests that the low U.S. inflation rate in recent years reflects a structural development, but that the low levels of unemployment may be a mainly cyclical phenomenon.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190795
An approach to decomposing and interpreting the inflation process is proposed. It suggests that the low U.S. inflation rate in recent years reflects a structural development, but that the low levels of unemployment may be a mainly cyclical phenomenon.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584497
The structural rate of unemployment and associated non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (the NAIRU) are of … representing the NAIRU as currently used by the OECD in its policy analysis and surveillance work. Three distinct classes of NAIRU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012444864
Estimates of the Nairu generally suffer from a large uncertainty, which can be reduced by adopting a bivariate …, it appears that the Nairu can substantially differ from the unemployment trend. Second, relaxing the common trend …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009293540
since the late 1990s. Structural unemployment is defined as a time-varying NAIRU derived from the information contained in a … revisions in historical NAIRU estimated in 2008 after such a large labour market shock support the robustness of the OECD … la fin des années 1990. Le chômage structurel est défini comme à un NAIRU variant dans le temps et dérivé de l …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009394361
Economists often seek to estimate unobserved variables, representing “equilibrium” or “expected” values of economic variables, as benchmarks against which observed, realised values of these variables may be evaluated. Such comparisons are often used as economic policy indicators, for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005045689