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Bayes estimators of the cointegration space
Villani, Mattias - 2003
A neglected aspect of the otherwise fairly well developed Bayesian analysis of cointegration is the point estimation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584335
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Bayes Estimators of the Cointegration Space
Villani, Mattias - Sveriges Riksbank - 2003
A neglected aspect of the otherwise fairly well developed Bayesian analysis of cointegration is the point estimation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190812
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Bayesian averaging over many dynamic model structures with evidence on the Great Ratios and liquidity trap risk
Strachan, Rodney W.; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2008
A Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented that makes use of a finite mixture of many model structures within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. It is applied to two empirical issues. First, stability of the Great Ratios in U.S. macro-economic time series is investigated,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377110
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Forecasting with instabilities : an application to DSGE models with financial frictions
Cardani, Roberta; Paccagnini, Alessia; Villa, Stefania - 2015
This paper examines whether the presence of parameter instabilities in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models affects their forecasting performance. We apply this analysis to medium-scale DSGE models with and without financial frictions for the US economy. Over the forecast period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349997
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Combined density nowcasting in an uncertain economic environment
Aastveit, Knut Are; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Dijk, Herman … - 2014
We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features in order to provide more accurate and complete density nowcasts. The combination weights are latent random...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465155
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Duration Dependent Markov-Switching Vector Autoregression : Properties, Bayesian Inference, Software and Application
Pelagatti, Matteo M. - 2013
Duration dependent Markov-switching VAR (DDMS-VAR) models are time series models with data generating process consisting in a mixture of two VAR processes. The switching between the two VAR processes is governed by a two state Markov chain with transition probabilities that depend on how long...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014059391
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Parallelization Experience with Four Canonical Econometric Models using ParMitISEM
Basturk, Nalan; Grassi, Stefano; Hoogerheide, Lennart; … - 2016
This paper presents the parallel computing implementation of the MitISEM algorithm, labeled Parallel MitISEM. The basic MitISEM algorithm, introduced by Hoogerheide, Opschoor and Van Dijk (2012), provides an automatic and flexible method to approximate a non-elliptical target density using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451514
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Solving, estimating and selecting nonlinear dynamic models without the curse of dimensionality
Winschel, Viktor (contributor); Krätzig, Markus (contributor) - 2008
We present a comprehensive framework for Bayesian estimation of structural nonlinear dynamic economic models on sparse … variances, allows for unbiased convergence diagnostics and for a simple implementation of the estimation on parallel computers …. Finally, we provide all algorithms in the open source software JBendge for the solution and estimation of a general class of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636133
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DSGE priors for BVAR models
Filippeli, Thomai; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2014
Similar to Ingram and Whiteman (1994), De Jong et al. (1993) and Del Negro and Schorfheide (2004) this study proposes a methodology of constructing Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) consistent prior distributions for Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models. The moments of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339762
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Great recession, slow recovery and muted fiscal policies in the US
Albonico, Alice; Tirelli, Patrizio; Paccagnini, Alessia - 2016
This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate policy. In contrast with previous findings, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434680